Visit They settled, after considerable deliberation, for a "two plus one" strategy of negotiations, with the Karabakh Armenians present but not an official party to the talks. Some observers maintain that Russia has played a far from benign role in the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute and that, in fact, Moscow has an interest in keeping the conflict alive in order to maintain its influence in the southern Caucasus region. As this report suggests, Russia continues to have a strong interest in the former Soviet republics of the Caucasus. A first misconception is that it is only oil that dictates U.S. policy in the region or that oil pushed the United States to put undue pressure on Armenia last year to compromise. Russia operates two military bases in Armenia, and the military alliance continues to expand. Brazilian Portuguese Finally, the sixth obstacle to resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute is the asymmetrical nature of the negotiating process, though this factor has changed somewhat in the past year. Unfortunately, this arrangement probably produced more problems than it solved, Walker said. This could be within NATO, or a sideline of NATO, or something wholly separate, but it would be an arrangement in which the three countries of the Caucasus would be compelled to cooperate militarily for the purposes of their own security. At the OSCEs summit in Lisbon in December 1996, all members save Armenia accepted the principle that Azerbaijans territorial integrity must be honored, though with a guarantee of maximum autonomy for Nagorno-Karabakh. As a result of the fightingwhich has been tenuously halted by a 1994 cease-fire agreementthousands of refugees and displaced persons live a desperate existence, unable to return home and complicating the prospects for a comprehensive peace settlement. I cannot go out. However, this solution has been completely rejected by Azerbaijan and would not be supported by the international community. On the other hand, and for reasons to be addressed below, the refugee problem in Nagorno-Karabakh is a less serious impediment than in other conflict situations, such as in Abkhazia, for example. At the same time, Azeris seem to see Armenians purely as aggressors, without being able to understand that Armenians also believe fervently that their own survival is at stake in this conflict. Nepali Nagorno-Karabakh would receive security guarantees, a permanent land corridor to Armenia, and de facto (though not de jure) independence. Nevertheless, Nagorno-Karabakh has attained a place of great importance in todays Armenia.
In September 1997, the Minsk Group proposed a phased approach plan, entailing an Armenian withdrawal from seven Azeri provinces followed by a discussion of the final status of Nagorno-Karabakh. A second misconception, Walker continued, is that Caspian oil is going to provide the primary incentive to reach a settlement. Southern Sotho The governments in both of the capitals remain highly suspicious of each other. Azerbaijans oil wealth has sometimes made that country feel it has less impe tus to compromise, while pipelines running through the Caucasus may offer the Armenians a kind of hostage issue they can manipulate for their own purposes.
Search for experts, projects, publications, courses, and more. Lithuanian The NKAR, nominally under Azeri sovereignty, would maintain separate armed forces as a defensive military force and a 25,000-man army during peacetime. Moldavian On April 24, U.S. President Joseph R. Biden, Jr. recognized the 1915 mass killing and deportation of an estimated one million Armenians in Turkey as genocide. First of all, it created an almost impossible political dilemma for President Ter-Petrossianand almost certainly was a factor in his downfall.
The character of the respective governments in the two capitals is a fifth impediment to efforts to reach a compromise agreement. On the ethnic Armenian side, more than half of civilian deaths were among older people. In addition to this matter of self-image, there is the issue of the image or perception of the other, which is a strong factor in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.
Clearly, the absence of security guarantees is a crucial sticking point in resolving this conflict. Tigrinya A death certificate issued by the Armenian authorities concluded that his death was caused by traumatic blood loss from gunshot wounds to his chest, stomach, and other internal organs. The one external factor that clearly distinguishes this conflict from others in the former Soviet Union is the active involvement of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), whose so-called Minsk Group of member-states has endeavored to find a peaceful solution to the Armenian-Azeri dispute. Unfortunately for Ter-Petrossian, Kocharian proved even less compromising on the Karabakh issue, Suny contended. Though there is a lot in the Aivazian proposal that is compatible with the suggestions of the Minsk Group, the main stumbling block continues to be the outright rejection by the Nagorno-Karabakh government.
Nagorno-Karabakh continues to insist that it is an independent state entity, though it has not been recognized by any other country, including Armenia. They also suffer due to an extreme lack ofmental health or psychosocial support services. Yet, the formation of the Minsk Group and other international efforts to mediate a settlement in Nagorno-Karabakh predates the signing of the deal of the century at the end of 1994, which was the time that Washington and other centers of power seemed to wake up to the realities of Caspian oil.
Thus, it is not clear, especially after recent domestic developments in Armenia, how or why the position of the Karabakh government could be expected to change. They reported a lack of access to adequate housing and a loss of livelihoods, which further entrenched feelings of helplessness and isolation. The Armenians will not discuss the issue of troop withdrawals from the seven occupied Azeri provinces outside of Nagorno-Karabakh until that regions status is determined in a way acceptable to its residents. Russia and Turkey, traditional rivals in this area of the Caucasus, back opposing sides in the dispute. Armenians very likely do not appreciate the extent to which Azeris believe their very existence to be threatened by the notion of independence for Nagorno-Karabakh. Had Azerbaijan accepted the new plan, it would have lost the leverage it held in the previous plans phased approach of linking concessions over the Armenian enclaves status to the withdrawal of Nagorno-Karabakhs forces from occupied Azeri territory. One report,Last to Flee: Older Peoples Experience of War Crimes and Displacement in the Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict, documents how older ethnic Armenians were disproportionately subjected to violence in the recent conflict, including war crimes such as extrajudicial executions, as well as torture and other ill-treatment while in Azerbaijani detention.
Furthermore, Walker contended, Baku could have taken the position that Armenia is interfering in Azerbaijans internal affairs by its economic, military, and political support for Karabakh and by its failure to close the Lachin corridor, which passes through Azeri territory, and that until Baku and Stepana kert reach an agreement, Turkeys embargo on Armenia should stay in place. For nearly six years, the stalemate has remained in place and the situation appears immovable. Finnish
Similarly, though there are some significant historical monuments and mosques in Karabakh, Azeris cannot genuinely claim that Karabakh has a central place in their national mythology.
As the discussion among the Institutes roundtable participants points out, the Minsk Groups September 1997 peace plan for settling the dispute--guaranteeing Nagorno-Karabakhs autonomy within Azerbaijan in a phased approach--elicited a solid rejection from Karabakh Armenians and an immediate acceptance from Azerbaijan; it also led to the ouster of Armenias Ter-Petrossian, following his conditional acceptance of some aspects of the plan and his efforts to garner support from a skeptical nation. Though Nagorno-Karabakh has rejected such status, it has not as yet been offered this kind of horizontal relationship with the government of Azerbaijan. Slavik Galstyan, 68, who lived with his family in the village of Mets Tagher and had a psychosocial disability, did not want to leave his home in October 2020. Nakhichevans future security as part of Azerbaijan would also be guaranteed.
By 1997, however, Stepanakert (the capital of Nagorno-Karabakh) essentially had become a full party to the negotiations, and it is now understood that any agreement must be signed by all three players. Furthermore, it is believed, one of those Russian goals is that none of the conflicts be resolved. There has been a tendency to overestimate the influence of oil and oil pipeline routes on that international attention. Dari Instead, Nasibzade said, it is more the case that Moscow would thwart any solution that did not preserve its level of control of and influence in the southern Caucasus region. Only countries with severely antagonistic interests and openly hostile policies between them do not have diplomatic relations. Nasibzade agreed that there are outside strategic concerns behind the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. However, the constant talk about a peace pipeline and the widespread belief in Yerevan and Step anakert that they were being forced to make unreasonable concessions because outside powers were competing for Azeri oil and gas contracts made Ter-Petrossian vulnerable to the charge that he was selling out to oil dollarscharges he was unable to counter. Looking to the future and not the past, however, may be a more American way of viewing human experience and not one that is easily understood by peoples so resolutely defined by their history. In spite of these considerable obstacles, there are factors in the conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh that provide a strong incentive to finding a settlement, Walker suggested. The eroding legitimacy of the Baku regime will make it more circumspect about accepting an agreement that appears to give any sort of concessions to the Karabakh Armenians. (The members of the Minsk Group are Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, the Czech Republic, France, Germany, Italy, the Russian Federation, Sweden, Turkey, and the United States.) By mid-1992, the Armenians largely controlled Nagorno-Karabakh; the 20 to 25 percent of the enclaves population that was Azeri had fled; and the Lachin corridor, a land bridge from the region to Armenia, was established. Armenia would see the end of the blockade against it, enabling it to build its badly damaged economic, social, and other spheres and to benefit from the development of the Azeri oil industry. United States Institute of Peace. The organization sought a diverse group of interviewees to represent a wide age range, a mix of genders, and numerous disabilities. Democracy Is Threatened but Remains Essential. For many Armenians, the victory over Azeri troops in Nagorno-Karabakh represents a kind of redemption after a very long period of defeat at the hands of the Turks, and this image has been extremely important in reaffirming their national identity and nationhood, particularly in the early period of independence. Hebrew In fact, Suny said, one of Kocharians first acts was to end the three-year ban on the Dashnaksun, a party with militant loyalty to Karabakh. This issue is a particular concern for the Armenians and is one of the main stumbling blocks in the attempts to find a settlement. Within the context of OSCE, each side is able to point to a principle enshrined in the Hel sinki Final Act to underscore its position: Azerbaijan points to Principle IV, guaranteeing each members territorial integrity, and the Armenians of Karabakh point to Principle VIII, proclaiming the right to self-determination (which is not specifically defined).
The Armenians may be justified in feeling surrounded, but as long as Armenian troops occupy 20 percent of Azeri territory, it is difficult for Azeris to be concerned about security guarantees for Armenia.
Maldivian In other words, Walker suggested, Karabakh is not centuries-old sacred soil to either people, except perhaps for those who actually grew up and owned property there. Xhosa Tuesday, December 1, 1998 Yet, below the surface, the picture was considerably different, Suny said. Whatever its overall aims, Russia clearly has shown itself determined to retain the in fluence over the former republics of the southern Caucasus that it enjoyed while the Soviet Union was a single entity.
He spent the first part of his rule restoring some semblance of order in the country, including the balance in foreign relations mentioned earlier. Unfortunately, it is difficult to see how this impasse is going to be broken, at least in the immediate future. This entailed an Armenian withdrawal from the seven provinces, followed by discussions on the final status of Nagorno-Karabakh.
Rather than accepting the phased approach to a settlement, the Karabakh Armenians demand that all issues be solved simultaneously.
Security issues and refugees on both sides are obstacles. Kirghiz Second, Turkey, which Aivazian said is one of the immediate parties to the conflict, is not identified as such but instead is included in the group of mediators.
Azerbaijan will not accept any change to its territorial integrity and, in any case, demands the withdrawal of Armenian troops from the other regions before serious negotiations on other issues can begin. The most recent flare-up of the conflict dates back to 1988, when, during the loosening of restraints under the rule of Mikhail Gorbachev, the Armenian majority in the Nagorno-Karabakh Supreme Soviet (the regions legislature) appealed to have the region join Armenia.
This is a scenario that Ter-Petrossian was simply unable to carry out. Opposition to the phased approach and solidarity with Nagorno-Karabakh became so manifest that in February 1998, Ter-Petrossian was forced to resign from office. Thus, though the ancient enemies thesis is sometimes overstated, it would be inaccurate to suggest that the historical mistrust between Azeris and Armenians and the legacy of the genocide are irrelevant to this conflict. An easing of the blockade--even by Turkey--would do a significant amount to break the deadlock, possibly easing the feelings of insecurity on both sides. Thus, Westerners, diplomats and scholars alike, are most likely to ascribe the origins of the conflict to nationalism, a nationalism that has become more uncompromising over the passing years. Many older people encountered obstacles while trying to leave. As to the origins of the conflict, nationalism as a factor is subordinate to the much more predominant role of geostrategy and geopolitics; specifically, a clash of crucial interests between the immediate parties to the conflict, which, Aivazian says, are Armenia, Nagorno-Karabakh, Azerbaijan, and Turkey, and among the regional and world powers. Slovak The idea of a joint American-Russian security guarantee is unlikely to be acceptable to Nagorno-Karabakh. This stance also fit well with Bakus strategy of pressuring Karabakh indirectly by isolating Armenia politically and economically. The primary purpose of the meeting was to pro vide an opportunity for scholars on and from the region to offer their ideas to American policy makers and negotiators on possible ways to move the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh "off the dime" on which it has been stuck since at least 1993. Because of the organizations consensus rule, the resolution was not formally adopted. Fourth, there are powerful economic pressures on both parties, especially on the Armenians, to reach a settlement. Hotly disputed between Armenians and Azeris, this tiny, barren area in the southern Caucasus region of the former Soviet Union has been the scene of some bitter fighting; though the military clashes have largely ceased, the political battles are as high-pitched as ever. There is lots of trauma between our two nations. Patricia Carley. For financial, political, and other reasons, this force would quickly leave the region, more than likely before any stability has been achieved. They thus believe the future of their integrity as a people lies in the favorable resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute.
While these conflicts persist, Moscow will maintain significant leverage over Yerevan, Baku and Tbilisi. Swati Perhaps not fully understanding how the different branches of government in the United States work, the Azeris seem to believe that if there are oil interests, U.S. government interests will be right behind them. Ashot told Amnesty International: His head was crushed. On the contrary, each side remains convinced that the root of the conflict lies in attitudes and beliefs of the people on the other side. A subset of CSCE members, dubbed the "Minsk Group" of countries, so-called after the location of its first convening, was formed to participate in the negotiation talks.
Older men appear to have been targeted because Azerbaijani soldiers believed they had participated in Armenias war effort during the 1990s. Thai
Western observers view the earlier historical conflicts between Arme nians and Turks in the 18941923 period and the more recent Armenian-Azeri dispute over Nagorno-Karabakh as separate developments; in contrast, the Armenians, Azeris, and Turks view the Karabakh conflict as a continuation of earlier conflicts, and their stra tegic calculations reflect this view.
Today, it appears that the antagonism is an obstacle to further democratic reforms in both countries. All of these outcomes would have to be implemented simultaneously. At the same time, most Azeris believe that Armenians hate Azeris and are essentially racist. Nevertheless, the most important factor is that power in Yerevan still lies with the so-called power ministries, Suny maintained. Azeris are very aware that Azerbaijan was the first democratic republic in the Islamic world. I wanted to die in prison but somehow I survived.. It should be pointed out, Aivazian continued, that as part of this three-way agreement the United States would not need to engage combat troops directly, which it would be unlikely to do. Japanese Currently in Armenia, Suny maintained, a gulf is growing between the ordinary people, who are concerned about being out of work and other day-to-day problems, and those who could be called political players, who continue to push Armenia toward positions of intransigent nationalism. His body was found more than two months later. At present, there is simply not enough of a consensus in the country on its goals, still less on the means to carry them out. Azerbaijan would preserve its territorial integrity and regain the six occupied provinces. After fomenting such conflicts, Moscow is able to step in as a guarantor of peace and stability and thereby maintain its influence and control. Second--and very important in light of the profound and pervasive mistrust outlined above--Nagorno-Karabakh is rather peripheral to the national myths of both peoples, Armenians and Azeris, despite what they sometimes argue. The current security agreement between Russia and Armenia is not sufficient for a number of reasons. Walker agreed, maintaining that the most that can be hoped for in finding a resolution to this dispute is some form of staged agreement. Grants & Fellowships It is particularly worrying that the defense minister in Karabakh has made various inflammatory statements about settling the issue through a preemptive attack of some kind, arguing that this is the only way to force Azerbaijan to make the necessary concessions. Many observers view it as an ethnic conflict fueled by nationalist intransigence. The prime minister, Robert Kocharian, became acting president, as it states in the constitution, until he was elected president in the subsequent elections. Spanish The other stipulations of the settlement plan proposed by Aivazian involve military and legal provisions within the political framework outlined above. Telugu
Even more damaging was the September 1996 presidential election, about which the OSCE expressed serious concern. From this point, Ter-Petrossian had little legitimacy with the people and relied almost entirely on the support of the power ministriesinterior, defense, and national security. But every company tells me Im too old., Malik C*, 67, said: I feel that my opinion is not heard because I dont participate anywhere now. Estonian Baku could have accepted that the government in Stepan akert genuinely represents the Karabakh Armenians; that Stepanakert is, in fact, the party to the conflict in a way that Yerevan is not; and that the Minsk process should always have included the direct participation of Stepanakert. A third shortcoming stems from the fact that Armenia has failed to present openly and clearly its strategic and other concerns that arise in part from the genocide of 1915. Azerbaijan, on the other hand, has steadfastly refused to allow Russia to operate any military bases on its territory, despite considerable Russian pressure. Armenia was in fact suffering enormously during those years. Both Azeris and Armenians claim absolute historic ownership of the region, located within the boundaries of Azerbaijan but populated largely by Armenians. Suny suggested, with an acknowledgment of its remote possibility, that perhaps some kind of collective security arrangement for the Caucasus could be organized. from George Washington University. Yet, at the same time that the state was being consolidated in Armenia and Azerbaijan, the governments in both countries were losing legitimacy. Somewhat unexpectedly and signaling a slight shift in position, the proposal was accepted by Armenia as a basis for further talks, though with reservations. The country believes itself isolated from Europe and the United States; pacts between Armenia and Russia, such as last years mutual defense agreement, only exacerbate these concerns. Chinese They are also extremely fearful about the possibility of territorial disintegration, something that they believe will happen along a proverbial slippery slope in which Nagorno-Karabakh is only the first step. Yet, in a way not dreamed of only a few years ago, the current fever over oil pipeline routes from Central Asia and the Caucasus regions has elevated the importance of this protracted dispute from obscure regional strife to a significant source of frustration for international political and business leaders. All displaced persons have the right to return to their original homes in conditions of dignity and security, and the unique risks to older people must be taken into consideration. Among the current violent disputes in the former Soviet Union, there is no doubt that the war over Nagorno-Karabakh has taken on the characteristics of a protracted conflict. That is unfortunate, for there seem to be many components of the dispute that provide the opposing parties enough flexibility to explore a variety of options toward a comprehensive settlement. Though one could make the case, Altstadt continued, that some forms of corruption are less damaging than others, or at least can be constructive in establishing economic structures, the kind of corruption that is flourishing in Azerbaijan is almost entirely debilitating and destructive--and almost completely out of control. Despite some occasional nationalist rhetoric, Turkey generally has a de facto policy of staying away from Russias sphere of influence. Xinca These include the realization that, because Karabakh (unlike Abkhazia or South Ossetia) is not on Russias border and (unlike Crimea or Transdniestr) was not populated by ethnic Russians, it would be easier for the OSCE to play a major role there without stepping on Russias toes; a concern that Russia and Turkey, the latter a North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) member, could be drawn into the conflict; the political weight of the Armenian-American community and its interests in ending the violence; and a general desire in Washington to protect and shore up the sovereignty of the newly independent Soviet successor states. Uzbek The country also needs a resolution to the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute to solve its very dire refugee problem. On the other hand, its status as loser creates some obstacles to reaching a settlement, Altstadt continued. Armenias need for security guarantees against Turkey was disputed by Molla-zade. At the same time, however, Armenians can be very sure of Russias military guarantee; historical precedents demonstrate that Russia will be there to help them.
Many older people raised concerns about returning permanently to their home regions. Karabakh Armenians now occupy a significant amount of territory outside Karabakh proper, from where most of the refugees in Azerbaijan come. Some appeared to have been tortured prior to their deaths, and some corpses were mutilated afterwards. Furthermore, success will come only with direct negotiations between Baku and Stepanakert. Older people who fled their homes have languished in displacement in the years since. The conflict first fought from 1988 to 1994, and then during another escalation in late 2020 sawolder people unlawfully killed, tortured, and forcibly displaced; abuses which have marked their lives ever since. Dutch Aivazian, however, disputed this notion, reiterating that Russias role in finding a solution is critical. However, cease-fire agreements were routinely broken literally within minutes of their signing. If you are talented and passionate about human rights then Amnesty International wants to hear from you. Neither Turkey nor Azerbaijan has a similar problem. The conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the Nagorno-Karabakh territory has caused decades of misery for older people, Amnesty International said in two new reports published today. In an attempt to tackle this impasse, the most recent plan offered by the Minsk Group, in September 1997, proposed a "phased" approach as a political solution. It was, however, rejected out of hand by Nagorno-Karabakh, which demanded that its independence be recognized and security guaranteed before any discussion of a withdrawal from other areas of Azerbaijan. Because there is no other solution that is short of inflammatory, it is hoped that the new government in Armenia will eventually come to this conclusion itself. Thus, unlike the case of the Chechens, neither the Armenians nor the Azeris believe that it was primarily the government of the other side that was to blame for the war. The Azeris have had to adapt their own policy toward Turkey to take into account the limits on how far Turkey will go to come to their aid. The plan was accepted by Azerbaijan, accepted with reservations by Armenia, and rejected out of hand by Nagorno-Karabakh. Turkish Projects Bulgarian Unfortunately, oil frequently lives comfortably with despotism, and it is extremely likely that an oil-rich Azerbaijan will remain under the fists of President (and former Communist Party boss) Aliev and his family and friends, who would see little reason to move toward a genuine democratic system. They have since refused to retreat from this land until the independence of Nagorno-Karabakh is recognized and its security guaranteed. It may be true that, in one sense, Karabakh is peripheral to the Armenian nation and its history.
His son, Ashot, identified the corpse at the morgue and said his fathers body appeared to have been mutilated. Thus, Baku has a substantial incentive to agree to a first-stage settlement that will allow these refugees to return to their homes.
Swahili In any case, Aivazian said, the OSCEs general inexperience in peacekeeping, the forces small size and mandated limitations, and its decentralized command and control structure also call into question the value of the effort. The international dimensions of this conflict also set it apart from other disputes in the former Soviet Union. Korean When active fighting broke out in Nagorno-Karabakh in September 2020, older people in ethnic Armenian communities were almost invariably last to flee their homes, and were disproportionately impacted by violence as a result.